Atletico Guemes vs Alvarado prediction

Atletico Guemes

For Atletico Guemes, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Atletico Guemes conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

Alvarado

Similarly, for Alvarado, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 212 points to the home team and 202 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Atletico Guemes) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 74.47% of victories for the team Atletico Guemes occurred in home matches. For the team Alvarado this indicator is 71.93%. On average, this equates to 73.2%, suggesting a slight advantage for Atletico Guemes all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 73.2% of the home team's points and 26.8% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Atletico Guemes with an advantage of 155 points against 54. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 74.16% to 25.84%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 31.65% with a coefficient of 3.16. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.2, and for the away team's victory it is 4.36. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 66.45%, and the away team's victory - 33.56%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Atletico Guemes's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.35%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.2, while in reality, it should be 1.97.

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.