For Atlas, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Atlas conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
10/03
Away
14 Tijuana
4:3
+36
03/03
Home
17 Atletico San Luis
3:1
+43
24/02
Away
14 Santos Laguna
0:2
+3
19/02
Home
37 Necaxa
0:4
+2
16/02
Home
17 Puebla
3:2
+25
09/02
Away
42 Tigres
1:2
+39
02/02
Away
33 Pachuca
0:0
+31
30/01
Home
32 Monterrey
3:3
+25
Similarly, for America, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
09/03
Away
28 Guadalajara
0:0
+41
02/03
Home
42 Toluca
3:0
+149
23/02
Away
27 UNAM
2:0
+108
20/02
Home
43 Leon
1:1
+33
15/02
Home
37 Necaxa
2:3
+21
08/02
Away
17 Puebla
2:1
+31
02/02
Home
31 Juarez
4:0
+108
29/01
Home
17 Atletico San Luis
3:0
+46
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 204 points to the home team and 537 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Atlas) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.14% of victories for the team Atlas occurred in home matches. For the team America this indicator is 64.29%. On average, this equates to 60.72%, suggesting a slight advantage for Atlas all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Atlas
Atlas 57.14%
America
America 64.29%
Average
Average 60.72%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.72% of the home team's points and 39.29% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is America with an advantage of 211 points against 124. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.05% to 36.95%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.45% with a coefficient of 3.93. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.49, and for the away team's victory it is 1.91. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 29.88%, and the away team's victory - 70.12%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Atlas's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.49, while in reality, it should be 3.63.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.49
3.93
1.91
Our calculation
3.63
3.93
2.13
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
4.49
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