For Argentino de Quilmes, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Argentino de Quilmes conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
11/09
Home
22 Sportivo Italiano
1:0
+30
07/09
Away
24 Villa San Carlos
0:0
+32
24/08
Away
30 Argentino de Merlo
2:0
+102
18/08
Home
27 Liniers
2:0
+60
12/08
Away
24 Comunicaciones
0:0
+27
06/08
Home
41 Deportivo Armenio
1:1
+34
27/07
Home
24 Villa Dalmine
2:0
+41
22/07
Away
27 Fenix
2:1
+39
Similarly, for Flandria, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
08/09
Home
27 Fenix
1:0
+46
03/09
Away
41 Midland
1:0
+88
25/08
Home
33 Los Andes
0:0
+23
17/08
Away
15 Canuelas
0:0
+17
03/08
Away
31 Deportivo Merlo
0:3
+3
27/07
Home
20 Sacachispas
1:0
+23
22/07
Away
24 Excursionistas
1:2
+21
14/07
Home
20 Acassuso
0:0
+14
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 365 points to the home team and 235 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Argentino de Quilmes) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.22% of victories for the team Argentino de Quilmes occurred in home matches. For the team Flandria this indicator is 61.67%. On average, this equates to 61.45%, suggesting a slight advantage for Argentino de Quilmes all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Argentino de Quilmes
Argentino de Quilmes 61.22%
Flandria
Flandria 61.67%
Average
Average 61.45%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.45% of the home team's points and 38.55% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Argentino de Quilmes with an advantage of 224 points against 90. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 71.28% to 28.72%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.96% with a coefficient of 3.23. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.97, and for the away team's victory it is 5.43. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 73.31%, and the away team's victory - 26.69%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Flandria's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.06%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.43, while in reality, it should be 5.04.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.97
3.23
5.43
Our calculation
2.03
3.23
5.04
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
5.43
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 664
ROI +4.06%
EARNINGS +$2698
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
QUANTITY 490
ROI +2.27%
EARNINGS +$1110
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